Every year around this time I look for weather signs that might give me a clue about the sort of winter ahead. Sometimes I get it spectacularly wrong, admittedly, usually because I’m convinced a Polar December lies ahead when in fact it turns out quite mild. Interestingly I don’t usually get it wrong the other way around though. My family say this is because I am a natural pessimist, always predicting worse weather than we are likely to get.

This year however, I've never seen so many berries on our holly trees. 'Drenched' would be a good description. The ivy bushes are the same. And it seems the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust nature reserve at Slimbridge, in Gloucestershire are on my side too, reporting that their Bewick swans have arrived earlier than ever from Siberia this year, which apparently is a sure sign of harsh weather ahead. This is because they are trying to escape the Arctic Winds (and personally, I don’t blame them).

So – are the swans right about the weather? Do they know something we don’t? Only time will tell.